Denver’s dramatic comeback over New York has turned the AFC West on its head and set up a November clash with Kansas City that feels like a Thanksgiving preview for Colorado fans.
The Kansas City Chiefs are back on top of the Super Bowl odds board at +500, but the gap in the AFC West has narrowed. Denver’s furious fourth-quarter rally to beat the Giants 33-32 showed a team beginning to believe it can challenge the defending champions. With Denver leading the division at 5-2 and Kansas City sitting at 4-3 after seven games, the November 16 meeting at Empower Field at Mile High has the look of a postseason dress rehearsal.
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AFC West Picture After Week 7
Seven games in, Denver leads at 5-2. Kansas City and the Chargers are both 4-3, split by tiebreakers and points. Most books still lean toward the Chiefs at about -130, with Denver around +225 and the Chargers near +400. The Raiders sit in long-shot territory near +15000.
Those numbers track with what you have watched. Kansas City stumbled early, Denver learned to finish tight games and the market moved with it. Not long ago, the Broncos were +1800 to win the division. Two wins later and the conversation is markedly different. Expect this volatility in the makers to persist, given that a single news report detailing a key injury can move the board again.
Kansas City Finds Rhythm Again
The 0-2 start shook confidence, then the Chiefs did what they always do — settled. Rashee Rice’s return gave Patrick Mahomes a vertical outlet, and the defense squeezed opponents to fewer than 17 points per game across the last month. The shutout of Las Vegas quieted the noise. The next block is heavy though, with Buffalo, Detroit and a trip to Denver all landing before December. It’s a run that should show how much margin the champions really have left.
Denver’s Confidence Is Growing
For Denver, the headline is resilience. Bo Nix threw for 174 yards in the fourth quarter against the Giants and finished with four total touchdowns. That flipped a game that looked gone and gave the offense a clear identity. Rookie Troy Franklin and veteran Courtland Sutton hit the moments that mattered, the timing Sean Payton has chased since camp.
The defense matched it. Cornerback Riley Moss has grown fast alongside Pat Surtain II, and that balance shows up in key downs. This group still makes mistakes, but the response under pressure has changed the mood around Mile High.
Health will decide how far it goes. Javonte Williams looks past the knee issues that stalled him, and his north-south power adds a dimension this offense missed last year.
Understanding the Odds Movement
The Chiefs drifted after the 0-2 start and climbed back to about +500 as the wins returned. Denver moved more, tightening from roughly +5000 to about +2500 after reaching 5-2. That fluctuation reflects sustained buying, not a one-week bounce.
For wider context, Green Bay sits near +800, Philadelphia around +1000 and Indianapolis about +1200. Denver now trades in the same range as teams like Los Angeles and San Francisco at several books; a notion that would have sounded, if not improbable, certainly bold a few weeks ago.
What to Expect on November 16
The matchup at Empower Field at Mile High will likely determine who controls the AFC West heading into Thanksgiving week. A Broncos win could move them to even money for the division and reframe Super Bowl talk in Colorado. A Chiefs victory would reassert Kansas City’s hold on the conference. Either way, it will test whether Denver’s resurgence is sustainable or simply a hot streak.
When these teams last met at Empower Field in January, Denver embarrassed Kansas City 38-0 in a game that barely looked competitive. With Patrick Mahomes resting, the Chiefs turned to Carson Wentz, and the offense never clicked. Nix went 18-for-19 and threw two first-half touchdowns, while Denver’s defense smothered everything in sight. It was one-way traffic from the start and a reminder that even dynasties can look ordinary when the depth chart gets tested.
For you as a bettor or fan, it’s a reminder that timing matters. Odds respond with every possession, and understanding those movements is part of following football in a legal, responsible way.
