The truth is that data is rendered almost entirely useless without context. Nowadays, metrics can be obtained from standard search engines, your own research, social media, and most efficiently through the use of Artificial Intelligence. You can then use this information to draw up your own reasonable conclusion, whether it’s making a decision between two betting sites or predicting the outcome of an NFL match. However, it is imperative to filter through the numbers and use the data that can accurately predict results. What does this mean?
Let’s say that you are searching for a new bookmaker. You have whittled it down to your Top 2, but can’t decide based on your opinion. When you look at the data on a bookies comparison site like Scs.ie, Bookmaker A has a 5-Star rating, but Bookmaker B has a 4.5-Star rating. Without looking at the rest of the metrics, you choose Bookmaker A because it has a higher rating. Now let’s explore further. The first bookmaker is new and has only two reviews, both glowing. On the other hand, the second bookmaker has over one thousand, making it infinitely more reliable. From a new light, you can quickly see that you made the wrong decision, as the metrics you should have also considered were neglected.
Statistics Which You Can Use To Predict Results
The statistics that you need to look out for are those that are relevant to the situation. On most bookmaker sites, you can view player form and similar data when you click on the odds, but it is important to know how to use the information.
- Team Stats
The recent form of a team includes data like their previous match results, clean sheets, top scorers, goal difference, and total punters who bet on the team to win. More in-depth statistics would be the win-to-loss ratio, as some teams play more matches than others. Also, only the team’s performance in the last five matches really matters. Any changes such as a new manager or squad additions are significant updates to also look out for.
- Player
Individual player metrics usually include their efficiency rating, injury status, and in team sports the minutes they spent playing. You should also consider their season shot map and accuracy. The shots on target are more predictive than total shots, and the expected goals are more helpful than the total goals. Accurate long balls, successful passes, successful dribbles, tackles, assists and yellow or red cards matter based on which betting market you are looking at.
- Predictive Algorithms
Predictive algorithms are handy because they do all of the work for you, and instead of collecting data yourself you can simply decide if the probability of the outcome is good enough for you to bet on. So, these mathematical models will tell you there is an X probability of winning.
- Situational Factors
No matter how much data you look at from the past, it is equally vital to look at the live situation. Factors like the home stadium or away team, weather forecast, and surface tell you information about influences that may benefit or be detrimental to the bet.
From A Bookmaker’s Perspective
Betting sites also use metrics to improve their engagement and attract more customers, thus growing their company. Some data is more useful than others.
- Safety Checks Using Customer Behaviour
Users who regularly spend time on betting sites have become increasingly more aware of the dangers of gambling, and so adequate safety features help to lessen their concerns. Betting sites use metrics regarding spikes in duration of betting, deposit amounts, and frequency of sign-ins to determine which customers are at risk. Consequently, they can send emails or prompts to enable users to switch on safety features like time-outs and reality checks.
- Traffic And Engagement Statistics
A metric that appears to be useful but isn’t, is the total visits to your website. Even though this might be high, the number doesn’t specify how long a user stayed on the platform, how many pages they explored, where they found your company, and when they left. Instead, look at the conversion rate, bounce rate, traffic sources, returning customers, and top pages.
- Market Concentration
Some betting markets are just more popular than others, and there is no specific reason for it. However, betting sites should always note when there are fluctuations in volume, for example at the beginning of a season, when there is a highly-anticipated rivalry, or when there is a new sponsorship. Planning this ahead of time and organising special bonuses, designing new features or marketing more during these periods brings in more customers.
Summary
Ultimately, the best strategy to predict results is by using the right metrics and acting accordingly. Avoid wasting time crunching numbers that won’t help your end goal, and look at the data which is the perfect combination of predictive and contextual.
