The sands of the Big 12 conference are shifting beneath its own feet. With departures, new additions, and teams trying to adapt, this is a season where every game matters, not just for standings, but for perception, momentum, and bet value.
Kansas State enters this season with an eye on both conference title races and significant bowl implications. Their performance in key matchups will tell us what they can do and their progress as a program in this new Big 12 order.
This article examines how the Wildcats are performing so far and what their upcoming games against Baylor, Kansas, and Oklahoma State can reveal, especially given the Kansas State Wildcats’ odds as priced by sportsbooks.
Understanding what the betting market expects helps shape what matters when analyzing each game, and how the Wildcats can exceed or fall short of those expectations.
Wildcats Performances to Date
The Wildcats start the season with a 1–3 mark and 0-1 in Big 12 play, showing some promise but also exposing several weak spots. Their offense leans heavily on quarterback Avery Johnson, who delivers both through the air and with his legs, though protection breakdowns and red-zone inefficiency have cost them. Running backs and receivers show flashes, while Joe Jackson and Jayce Brown have made plays; however, consistency remains elusive.
What stands out is how close many of the losses are: Kansas State’s losses to Iowa State, Army, and Arizona come by narrow margins, showing the Wildcats compete but don’t yet finish.
Defensively, Kansas State struggles to contain explosive plays and has allowed opponents to extend drives in the second half. Their overall points per game and points allowed metrics reflect a team that can start strong but fade.
For bettors watching paths forward, those margins suggest some value: move the needle late, fix the breakdowns, and they can surprise. With Kansas State Wildcats odds for win totals, conference championship, and bowl projections hovering at modest levels, markets clearly see the Wildcats as risky but not out of the conversation yet.
The next matchups will define whether they are under-delivering or merely under-bet.
Wildcats vs Baylor
Date: Oct 4, 2025
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
Traveling to Waco to face Baylor will test Kansas State in multiple dimensions. Baylor, returning many starters, provides a traditional Big 12 test: physical in the trenches, capable of dictating pace, especially on offense and when defending the run.
For the Wildcats, this game demands that Johnson get to the second level, receivers win contested catches, and their defense forces Baylor into uncomfortable down-and-distances.
The Wildcats’ ability to avoid turnovers here will decide much. Baylor tends to capitalize quickly on mistakes, turning field position into points. Kansas State must also manage time of possession: if Baylor controls the clock, the Wildcats will be chasing both the scoreboard and momentum.
Betting markets likely give Baylor a favorite line at home, but if Kansas State can hold Baylor’s offense and deliver a clean performance, there’s room for them to cover or even pull off a win. For bettors, this game may offer a reasonable return if you believe the Wildcats’ offense is ready to take strides and their defense can stem Baylor’s threats. This game is an early chance to flip the narrative and show that Kansas State belongs among Big 12 contenders.
Wildcats vs Kansas
Date: Oct 25, 25
Location: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kansas
The rivalry game at Kansas always carries extra weight, both emotionally and in terms of standings. The Wildcats know that playing on the road in Lawrence means the crowd will be loud, expectations high, and margin for error small. Historically, Kansas State has fared well in rival matchups, but this season demands that they bring both offense and defense in full form.
Kansas’s style tends to be aggressive, especially in the secondary, which means the Wildcats must be precise in passing and avoid costly miscues. Johnson must exploit mismatches and trust his receivers to create separation.
On defense, Kansas State needs to generate pressure up front; getting after the quarterback can disrupt Kansas’s rhythm. If the Wildcats can force turnovers and win short-yardage battles, they control the flow.
From a betting standpoint, a road rivalry like this may have Kansas as the slight favorite, but oddsmakers will respect Kansas State’s pedigree. Beating Kansas on the road is a statement; covering in a tight game is value.
The Wildcats have to stay composed, make smart play calls, and avoid letting emotion carry away discipline. Victory here would be a strong signal that Kansas State can handle adversity in Big 12 play.
Wildcats vs Oklahoma State
Date: Nov 15, 2025
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma
The road trip to Stillwater is one of the toughest away tests on Kansas State’s schedule. Oklahoma State tends to play physical in front of its home fans, especially controlling the line of scrimmage.
For Kansas State, this means their offensive line must hold up and their scheme must create running lanes under duress. Johnson’s mobility may be a key factor here; escaping pressure and extending plays could make the difference.
Defensively, the Wildcats must be opportunistic. OSU often commits to balanced attacks, and Kansas State will need to read OSU’s offensive tendencies early. Defensive backs will be tested, especially in space and on third down. Special teams and turnovers could swing momentum in a quiet road environment.
In terms of betting value, this game is likely priced as a toss-up or slight OSU lean, depending on recent form. If Kansas State can steal this win away from home, their confidence and standing in Big 12 futures improve significantly.
For bettors, getting Wildcats at decent odds on the road could offer an undervalued return if internal factors (health, momentum, preparation) align.
Crucial Inflection Point
Kansas State sits at a crucial inflection point in the Big 12: not yet elite, but far from irrelevant. Wildcats’ early performances expose vulnerabilities, but also reveal upside. Games at Baylor and Kansas test resolve; facing Texas Tech and Oklahoma State test balance, depth, and mental strength.
As betting markets assign Kansas State Wildcats odds, those games serve both as measuring sticks and opportunities.
For fans, this season promises tension, excitement, and potential signature wins. For bettors, assessing where the Wildcats are underpriced or where value lies will be critical. If Kansas State learns from its narrow losses, limits mistakes, and shows resilience on the road, then its odds won’t just predict what they are; they begin to reflect what they can become.
