Have you ever wondered how football analysts determine which plays truly impact the game?
Terms like EPA (Expected Points Added) and Success Rate are common in football analytics, but many fans are unsure what they actually mean or how they differ.
EPA measures the overall value of a play by showing how much it changes a team’s scoring chances, while Success Rate tracks how consistently a team achieves positive outcomes.
When used together, these stats unlock a smarter way to evaluate teams, players, and strategies, helping fans see not just what happened, but why it mattered.
What is EPA (Expected Points Added)?
EPA stands for Expected Points Added, a stat that shows how much a play changes a team’s scoring chances.
Instead of only looking at yards gained, EPA considers context, down, distance, field position, and time left.
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Example:
Formula: EPA = (Expected Points After the Play) – (Expected Points Before the Play) |
This metric provides analysts with insight into impact plays that move the scoreboard closer in a meaningful way, not just plays that accumulate yardage.
What is Success Rate?
Success Rate measures how often plays are “successful” in keeping the offense on schedule.
It doesn’t calculate points but instead looks at whether the play gained enough yards based on the down:
- 1st down: Gain at least 40% of needed yards
- 2nd down: Gain at least 60%
- 3rd/4th down: Gain 100% (convert or score)
A high Success Rate means a team consistently moves the chains and stays in favorable positions. It emphasizes efficiency and consistency over explosiveness.
EPA vs Success Rate: The Key Differences
Here’s a simple table that makes the differences clear:
| Feature | EPA (Expected Points Added) | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| What It Measures | Change in scoring chances | How often do plays keep drives alive |
| Value Type | Continuous (positive/negative) | Binary (success/failure) |
| Context | Factors include down, distance, field position, and time | Only compares yards gained vs. needed |
| Best For | Gauging impact on scoring/wins | Tracking consistency/efficiency |
| Play Calling Use | Spots explosive, high-value plays | Finds steady, reliable plays |
| Limitations | Can overvalue rare big plays | Misses true scoring impact |
Tip: Use EPA to spot game-changing plays and Success Rate to check steady performance—together they tell the full story.
Why Both Stats Matter in Football
Both metrics are essential because they tell different sides of the story.
EPA highlights the big, game-changing plays that directly affect scoring, while Success Rate shows whether a team can steadily gain yards and control the flow of the game.
For example, a quarterback may have a high Success Rate but a low EPA if he completes many short passes that don’t significantly boost scoring chances.
On the other hand, another QB could have a low Success Rate but a high EPA if he makes fewer plays overall but connects on explosive passes that swing the scoreboard.
By combining EPA and Success Rate, analysts can measure both impact and consistency for a more complete evaluation.
Fans who want to follow this live often check the top sites for real-time EPA stats during games, which post updated charts throughout each matchup.
Final Thought: Watching Football Smarter
Next time you watch a game, pay attention to both EPA vs Success Rate.
A short pass may carry a high EPA if it raises scoring chances, while consistent gains reflect a strong Success Rate.
Together, these stats reveal the real story behind each play.
Even if you’re a fan, analyst, or coach, using them side by side helps you see football on a whole new level.
Once you’re comfortable with the basics, you can dive deeper into how to use EPA charts to grade NFL play calling, giving you the same tools that pros use to judge strategy and efficiency.
So start tracking them in the next game you watch!
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Epa Better than Success Rate?
Not necessarily. EPA measures impact, while success rate measures consistency. Analysts use both together for the clearest picture.
Why is the EPA important in Football?
EPA shows how much each play changes a team’s chance of scoring, helping coaches and analysts evaluate play-calling and player efficiency.
Why Does Success Rate Matter?
It highlights how reliably a team gains the yards they need on each down, showing consistency in moving the chains.
Can a Team Have a High Success Rate but a Low Epa?
Yes. This usually happens when teams gain small, steady yards but fail to make explosive plays that lead to points.
