After a decade of talk, Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury meet at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Friday, December 11, with the WBA ‘super’ heavyweight title on the line. Anyone weighing up the Fury Joshua odds needs to know where Joshua can find an edge over a man who has lost only to Oleksandr Usyk. Fury goes in at 36-2-1 with 25 knockouts, and Joshua at 30-4 with 27.
1. Survive the Opening Round
Joshua’s last fight was a warning. Kristian Prenga floored him with an uppercut inside 30 seconds in Jeddah on July 25, then put him down a second time before the bell. Joshua recovered to stop the Albanian in the second round, but he cannot afford a start like that against Fury. It was not a one-off either: Daniel Dubois knocked him out in the fifth round at Wembley in September 2024.
The first three minutes in Cardiff will decide whether Joshua gets to fight his fight. A tight guard and a busy jab early would let him settle before he starts letting his hands go.
2. Close the Distance
Fury is three inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage, 85 inches to 82. He used those long levers to control Arslanbek Makhmudov at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in April, winning 120-108, 120-108 and 119-109 in his first fight in almost 16 months.
Makhmudov arrived with 19 knockouts from 21 wins and failed to win a single round on two of the three scorecards. Joshua has to get past the jab and work at mid-range rather than reach for Fury from the outside.
3. Go Looking for The Stoppage
A 12-round points fight suits Fury. Joshua’s last five wins have all come inside the distance: Robert Helenius in seven rounds, Otto Wallin on a corner retirement after five, Francis Ngannou in two, Jake Paul in six and Prenga in two. His last win on points was against Jermaine Franklin in April 2023.
Fury’s record over the same period points the other way. Since stopping Derek Chisora in December 2022, he has won twice on the cards and lost twice to Usyk on points. His only stoppage since then came against 46-year-old Mariusz Wach in July, when Wach retired after the seventh round in Thailand.
4. Test Fury’s Chin
Fury is famous for getting up, but he does go down. Deontay Wilder dropped him twice in their first fight in 2018 and twice more in round four of their third fight in 2021. Ngannou, making his professional boxing debut, floored him in the third round in October 2023.
That fight is the clearest comparison available. Fury beat Ngannou by split decision. Joshua knocked out the same opponent in two rounds just over four months later. If Joshua lands clean, history says Fury can be hurt.
5. Make Cardiff His Venue Again
Joshua has fought at the Principality Stadium twice and won both times. He stopped Carlos Takam in the 10th round in October 2017, then outpointed Joseph Parker in March 2018 to add the WBO belt to his collection.
He does not lack belief. When he confronted Fury at ringside after the Makhmudov win, Joshua said: “I punched you out when we were kids, and I’ll punch you out again.”
Fury v Joshua: The Final Word
The fight streams on Netflix at no extra cost to subscribers, and the boxing odds on Betfair cover the main event along with the undercard as it is confirmed. Fury will be 38 on fight night, Joshua 37, and the WBA ‘super’ title goes to the winner.
